Hammarby W vs Kristianstad W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-11-15 · 14:00 CET
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WWLLWThe score model makes a Hammarby W win the most likely outcome at 79%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Hammarby W win — 79.1% vs 68.4% implied (+10.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hammarby W 2.54 – 0.64 Kristianstad W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby W win | 79.1% | 68.4% | +10.7% |
| Draw | 13.2% | 19.1% | -5.9% |
| Kristianstad W win | 7.8% | 12.6% | -4.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 61.5% | +0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.4% | 40.9% | -1.5% |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.0% | 42.1% | +0.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hammarby W 38.9 / Kristianstad W 38.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hammarby W vs Kristianstad W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.