Norrkoping W vs Djurgarden W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-30 · 15:00 CET
LLWLD
LLLWWThe score model made a Norrkoping W win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Norrkoping W 1.33 – 1.21 Djurgarden W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norrkoping W win | 40.5% | 39.3% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 26.7% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Djurgarden W win | 34.6% | 34.0% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 56.4% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.0% | 36.0% | -11.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 60.1% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 38.6% | -9.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Norrkoping W 34.1 / Djurgarden W 34.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.