Hammarby W vs Vittsjo W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-29 · 15:00 CET
WWWLW
WLDWWThe score model made a Hammarby W win the most likely outcome at 80%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hammarby W 2.42 – 0.52 Vittsjo W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby W win | 79.9% | 83.4% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 13.6% | 11.2% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Vittsjo W win | 6.5% | 5.4% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 71.4% | -14.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.1% | 52.6% | -18.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 36.7% | 44.1% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.4% | 50.4% | -7.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hammarby W 34.7 / Vittsjo W 34.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.