Hacken W vs AIK W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-23 · 13:00 CET
WWWWW
LWLWLThe score model makes a Hacken W win the most likely outcome at 87%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 75%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Hacken W win — 86.6% vs 65.6% implied (+21.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hacken W 3.24 – 0.66 AIK W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hacken W win | 86.6% | 65.6% | +21.0% |
| Draw | 8.7% | 21.3% | -12.6% |
| AIK W win | 4.7% | 13.1% | -8.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.7% | 54.2% | +20.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54.6% | 34.2% | +20.4% |
| Both teams to score | 46.1% | 48.2% | -2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.0% | 38.5% | +10.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hacken W 34.5 / AIK W 31.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.