Hacken W vs AIK W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-23 · 13:00 CET
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LDWWWThe score model made a Hacken W win the most likely outcome at 87%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 75%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hacken W 3.24 – 0.66 AIK W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hacken W win | 86.6% | 75.6% | +11.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 8.7% | 15.5% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| AIK W win | 4.7% | 8.9% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.8% | 63.3% | +11.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54.8% | 45.4% | +9.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | 49.0% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.9% | 44.5% | +4.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hacken W 34.3 / AIK W 31.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.