Malmo FF W vs Hammarby W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-21 · 18:00 CET
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WWWLWThe score model made a Hammarby W win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Malmo FF W 1.00 – 1.38 Hammarby W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF W win | 28.1% | 31.4% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 27.4% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Hammarby W win | 46.6% | 41.2% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 51.6% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 30.7% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 55.8% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 35.9% | +2.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Malmo FF W 24.5 / Hammarby W 34.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.