Norrkoping W vs Kristianstad W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-16 · 15:00 CET
LLLWL
WLWDLThe score model made a Kristianstad W win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:5 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Norrkoping W 1.31 – 1.32 Kristianstad W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norrkoping W win | 37.5% | 31.6% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 27.5% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Kristianstad W win | 38.0% | 40.9% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 52.2% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% | 32.1% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 56.7% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.0% | 36.3% | +4.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Norrkoping W 33 / Kristianstad W 33.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.