Norrkoping W vs Kristianstad W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-16 · 15:00 CET
DDDLW
DWLWLThe score model makes a Norrkoping W win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Norrkoping W win — 38.5% vs 32.3% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Norrkoping W 1.33 – 1.30 Kristianstad W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norrkoping W win | 38.5% | 32.3% | +6.2% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 27.8% | -3.3% |
| Kristianstad W win | 37.0% | 40.0% | -3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 52.7% | -3.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 32.9% | -5.7% |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | 57.9% | -5.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 37.0% | +4.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Norrkoping W 33.1 / Kristianstad W 33.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.