Uppsala W vs Malmo FF W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-15 · 13:00 CET
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DWDWWThe score model made a Malmo FF W win the most likely outcome at 79%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 0:6 (HT 0:5) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Uppsala W 0.77 – 2.77 Malmo FF W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uppsala W win | 8.1% | 4.1% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 12.5% | 9.5% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Malmo FF W win | 79.4% | 86.4% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.7% | 73.1% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.3% | 54.6% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 38.2% | +11.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 84.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.4% | 52.0% | +1.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Uppsala W 14.3 / Malmo FF W 23.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.