AIK W vs Vittsjo W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-15 · 13:00 CET
WLWLW
DWDWDThe score model makes a AIK W win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 70.9% vs 60.2% implied (+10.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AIK W 1.49 – 1.19 Vittsjo W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIK W win | 45.0% | 50.5% | -5.5% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 25.7% | -1.7% |
| Vittsjo W win | 31.1% | 23.8% | +7.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 56.8% | -6.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 36.6% | -8.3% |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 58.7% | -5.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 39.8% | -10.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AIK W 30.9 / Vittsjo W 33.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.