Real Madrid C vs Guadalajara
Segunda Division B - Group 5, Spain · 2026-10-07 · 12:00 CET
DLLDD
WLDDWThe score model made a Guadalajara win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Madrid C 1.12 – 1.27 Guadalajara.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid C win | 32.0% | 34.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.0% | 30.4% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Guadalajara win | 39.1% | 35.2% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 46.9% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 28.3% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 53.2% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 53.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.3% | 35.0% | -15.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Real Madrid C 35.2 / Guadalajara 22.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.