Poblense vs Castellon B
Segunda Division B - Group 3, Spain · 2026-10-11 · 12:00 CET
LLWLW
WWWWLThe score model made a Poblense win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Poblense 1.99 – 1.28 Castellon B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poblense win | 53.9% | 40.2% | +13.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.4% | 28.9% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Castellon B win | 24.7% | 30.9% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | 48.4% | +15.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.3% | 29.2% | +12.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | 54.2% | +8.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 86.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 62.4% | 33.2% | +29.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Poblense 25 / Castellon B 25.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.