Oviedo B vs Rayo Cantabria
Segunda Division B - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-11 · 12:30 CET
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DLLLLThe score model made an Oviedo B win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oviedo B 1.78 – 1.46 Rayo Cantabria.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo B win | 45.3% | 51.1% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 26.5% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Rayo Cantabria win | 31.5% | 22.4% | +9.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | 48.9% | +14.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.7% | 29.0% | +11.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | 51.7% | +12.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.6% | 34.2% | +8.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oviedo B 32.2 / Rayo Cantabria 42.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.