Llanera vs Marino de Luanco
Segunda Division B - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-10 · 18:00 CET
LLWDW
LLLWLThe score model made a Marino de Luanco win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 29%). It finished 4:2 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Llanera 0.89 – 1.00 Marino de Luanco.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llanera win | 31.0% | 40.1% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.0% | 27.8% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Marino de Luanco win | 37.0% | 32.2% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.3% | 49.3% | -20.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.3% | 28.9% | -16.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 37.2% | 54.7% | -17.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.8% | 34.2% | -12.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Llanera 14.9 / Marino de Luanco 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.