Atl. Astorga vs Ourense CF
Segunda Division B - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-10 · 16:30 CET
LWLLW
WLWDLThe score model made an Ourense CF win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atl. Astorga 0.83 – 1.21 Ourense CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atl. Astorga win | 25.2% | 28.0% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.8% | 29.6% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Ourense CF win | 44.9% | 42.4% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.4% | 42.0% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.0% | 23.4% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 39.6% | 48.5% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.9% | 30.3% | -3.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atl. Astorga 25 / Ourense CF 12 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.