UD Ibiza vs FC Cartagena SAD
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-11-15 · 12:00 CET
DWDWD
DWLLDThe score model makes a UD Ibiza win the most likely outcome at 50%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.6% vs 69.9% implied (+7.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: UD Ibiza 1.49 – 0.92 FC Cartagena SAD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| UD Ibiza win | 49.6% | 49.5% | +0.0% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 27.0% | +0.8% |
| FC Cartagena SAD win | 22.6% | 23.5% | -0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 50.0% | -6.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 30.1% | -7.8% |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 53.0% | -5.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 34.7% | -6.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: UD Ibiza 47.9 / FC Cartagena SAD 31.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open UD Ibiza vs FC Cartagena SAD in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.