Murcia vs Alcorcon
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-11-15 · 18:45 CET
WDLWD
LDDDWThe score model makes a Murcia win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Murcia win — 45.7% vs 37.2% implied (+8.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Murcia 1.37 – 0.95 Alcorcon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Murcia win | 45.7% | 37.2% | +8.4% |
| Draw | 29.0% | 28.6% | +0.4% |
| Alcorcon win | 25.3% | 34.1% | -8.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.0% | 47.4% | -6.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.5% | 27.7% | -7.2% |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | 52.8% | -6.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.9% | 33.1% | -5.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Murcia 50.1 / Alcorcon 42.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Murcia vs Alcorcon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.