Atl. Madrid B vs Teruel
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-11-15 · 12:00 CET
DLDDL
WLDLDThe score model makes an Atl. Madrid B win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 54.9% vs 47.0% implied (+7.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atl. Madrid B 1.91 – 0.74 Teruel.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atl. Madrid B win | 64.4% | 57.4% | +6.9% |
| Draw | 22.5% | 23.9% | -1.4% |
| Teruel win | 13.1% | 18.7% | -5.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 54.4% | -5.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | 33.6% | -6.2% |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 53.0% | -7.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 37.3% | -4.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Atl. Madrid B 47.9 / Teruel 31.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Atl. Madrid B vs Teruel in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.