Torremolinos vs Huesca
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-11-14 · 18:45 CET
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DDDWLThe score model makes a Torremolinos win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Torremolinos win — 39.2% vs 24.4% implied (+14.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torremolinos 1.32 – 1.17 Huesca.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torremolinos win | 39.2% | 24.4% | +14.8% |
| Draw | 28.6% | 27.1% | +1.6% |
| Huesca win | 32.1% | 48.5% | -16.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 47.6% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 27.4% | -3.5% |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 50.8% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.6% | 33.1% | -2.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Torremolinos 31.8 / Huesca 10.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Torremolinos vs Huesca in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.