Hercules vs Villarreal B
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-11-14 · 18:45 CET
WLLWD
DWWDDThe score model makes a Villarreal B win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Villarreal B win — 37.8% vs 31.7% implied (+6.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hercules 1.22 – 1.30 Villarreal B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules win | 33.8% | 40.0% | -6.3% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 28.3% | +0.2% |
| Villarreal B win | 37.8% | 31.7% | +6.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 48.8% | -2.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 28.9% | -4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 53.2% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 33.9% | -3.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hercules 42.6 / Villarreal B 42.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hercules vs Villarreal B in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.