Villarreal B vs Torremolinos
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 12:00 CET
LDWWD
LDDWDThe score model makes a Villarreal B win the most likely outcome at 68%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 52.5% vs 49.7% implied (+2.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Villarreal B 2.23 – 0.88 Torremolinos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal B win | 67.6% | 69.3% | -1.7% |
| Draw | 19.4% | 19.6% | -0.2% |
| Torremolinos win | 13.0% | 11.1% | +1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 59.1% | +1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% | 39.4% | -1.7% |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | 49.7% | +2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 41.1% | +1.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Villarreal B 42.1 / Torremolinos 31.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Villarreal B vs Torremolinos in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.