Teruel vs UD Ibiza
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 12:00 CET
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WDWDWThe score model makes a UD Ibiza win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 65.1% vs 57.1% implied (+7.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Teruel 0.89 – 1.21 UD Ibiza.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teruel win | 26.5% | 27.2% | -0.7% |
| Draw | 30.8% | 28.8% | +1.9% |
| UD Ibiza win | 42.8% | 44.0% | -1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.9% | 42.9% | -7.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.1% | 23.7% | -7.6% |
| Both teams to score | 41.9% | 48.5% | -6.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.1% | 30.0% | -4.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Teruel 31.2 / UD Ibiza 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Teruel vs UD Ibiza in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.