Murcia vs Algeciras
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 20:30 CET
LWDLW
WLWWLThe score model makes a Murcia win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.7% vs 71.7% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Murcia 1.45 – 0.91 Algeciras.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Murcia win | 48.9% | 51.3% | -2.4% |
| Draw | 27.9% | 26.5% | +1.4% |
| Algeciras win | 23.2% | 22.2% | +1.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.0% | 48.0% | -5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 28.3% | -7.0% |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 50.4% | -4.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 33.5% | -5.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Murcia 49.8 / Algeciras 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Murcia vs Algeciras in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.