CE Europa vs Atl. Madrid B
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 12:00 CET
LWLLL
LDLDDThe score model makes a CE Europa win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: CE Europa win — 37.6% vs 34.6% implied (+3.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CE Europa 1.48 – 1.46 Atl. Madrid B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CE Europa win | 37.6% | 34.6% | +3.0% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 27.0% | -1.4% |
| Atl. Madrid B win | 36.8% | 38.4% | -1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 53.6% | +2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% | 33.7% | +0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 57.6% | +2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 36.9% | -0.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: CE Europa 31.2 / Atl. Madrid B 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open CE Europa vs Atl. Madrid B in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.