Murcia vs Gimnastic
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-10-04 · 12:00 CET
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DWLLLThe score model made a Murcia win the most likely outcome at 54%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Murcia 1.54 – 0.80 Gimnastic.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murcia win | 54.2% | 53.5% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 25.6% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Gimnastic win | 19.0% | 20.9% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.6% | 50.0% | -8.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.0% | 29.7% | -8.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 51.4% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 34.5% | +3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Murcia 46.9 / Gimnastic 30.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.