Alcorcon vs Torremolinos
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-10-03 · 18:45 CET
DDWWW
LLLLLThe score model made an Alcorcon win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 5:0 (HT 4:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alcorcon 1.81 – 0.94 Torremolinos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 57.5% | 71.5% | -14.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 18.8% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Torremolinos win | 18.8% | 9.7% | +9.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 53.7% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.8% | 33.6% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 41.8% | +9.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 36.5% | -1.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alcorcon 39.6 / Torremolinos 28.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.