Torremolinos vs Algeciras
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-09-26 · 16:30 CET
LDDWD
WWLWWThe score model made a Torremolinos win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torremolinos 1.49 – 1.14 Algeciras.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torremolinos win | 44.7% | 32.8% | +11.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 29.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Algeciras win | 28.4% | 37.9% | -9.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 45.2% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 25.6% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 51.1% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 31.3% | +3.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Torremolinos 27.4 / Algeciras 45 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Torremolinos vs Algeciras in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.