Zamora vs Real Aviles
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-11-15 · 14:15 CET
DDLLL
WWLWWThe score model makes a Zamora win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 58.0% vs 51.2% implied (+6.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zamora 1.71 – 1.30 Real Aviles.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zamora win | 46.7% | 42.5% | +4.2% |
| Draw | 24.4% | 27.5% | -3.2% |
| Real Aviles win | 28.9% | 30.0% | -1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | 51.2% | +6.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.6% | 31.6% | +4.0% |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | 55.4% | +4.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 35.8% | +1.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Zamora 43 / Real Aviles 32.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Zamora vs Real Aviles in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.