Lugo vs Mirandes
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-11-15 · 16:30 CET
WWLWW
DLWWLThe score model makes a Lugo win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Lugo win — 44.3% vs 37.5% implied (+6.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lugo 1.33 – 0.98 Mirandes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 44.3% | 37.5% | +6.8% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 28.5% | +0.0% |
| Mirandes win | 27.1% | 34.0% | -6.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 45.3% | -4.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.2% | 25.7% | -5.5% |
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | 51.0% | -4.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.1% | 31.8% | -4.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Lugo 48.5 / Mirandes 10.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lugo vs Mirandes in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.