CD Coria vs Unionistas
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-11-14 · 18:45 CET
LWDLW
DLWLWThe score model makes a CD Coria win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Unionistas win — 30.9% vs 27.4% implied (+3.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CD Coria 1.41 – 1.17 Unionistas.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CD Coria win | 42.1% | 45.1% | -3.0% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 27.5% | -0.5% |
| Unionistas win | 30.9% | 27.4% | +3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 48.0% | -0.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 27.9% | -2.0% |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 51.8% | +0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.5% | 33.5% | -2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: CD Coria 10.2 / Unionistas 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open CD Coria vs Unionistas in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.