Ath Bilbao B vs Racing Club Ferrol
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-11-14 · 13:00 CET
DLLWL
WWLDLThe score model makes an Ath Bilbao B win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 81.6% vs 70.9% implied (+10.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ath Bilbao B 1.24 – 0.98 Racing Club Ferrol.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ath Bilbao B win | 41.9% | 42.8% | -0.9% |
| Draw | 29.4% | 27.7% | +1.7% |
| Racing Club Ferrol win | 28.6% | 29.5% | -0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.2% | 48.6% | -10.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.4% | 29.1% | -10.7% |
| Both teams to score | 44.7% | 53.5% | -8.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.7% | 33.9% | -7.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ath Bilbao B 43.1 / Racing Club Ferrol 34.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ath Bilbao B vs Racing Club Ferrol in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.