Merida AD vs Ath Bilbao B
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 18:15 CET
DWLLL
LDLLWThe score model makes a Merida AD win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Merida AD win — 42.4% vs 38.8% implied (+3.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Merida AD 1.44 – 1.19 Ath Bilbao B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merida AD win | 42.4% | 38.8% | +3.7% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 28.3% | -1.6% |
| Ath Bilbao B win | 30.9% | 33.0% | -2.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 50.4% | -1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 30.4% | -3.2% |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 55.3% | -1.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 35.2% | -0.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Merida AD 10.9 / Ath Bilbao B 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Merida AD vs Ath Bilbao B in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.