Unionistas vs Zamora
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-11-07 · 18:45 CET
WDLWL
WDDLLThe score model makes a Unionistas win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Unionistas win — 39.4% vs 31.6% implied (+7.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Unionistas 1.30 – 1.16 Zamora.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unionistas win | 39.4% | 31.6% | +7.8% |
| Draw | 28.1% | 28.4% | -0.3% |
| Zamora win | 32.6% | 40.0% | -7.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 46.2% | -1.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 26.8% | -3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 51.4% | -0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 32.2% | -2.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Unionistas 50.2 / Zamora 42.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Unionistas vs Zamora in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.