Cacereno vs Lugo
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-11-06 · 19:00 CET
LDLWL
WWWLWThe score model makes a Cacereno win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 81.8% vs 74.3% implied (+7.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cacereno 1.24 – 0.96 Lugo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cacereno win | 42.2% | 38.0% | +4.2% |
| Draw | 29.7% | 28.8% | +0.9% |
| Lugo win | 28.1% | 33.3% | -5.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.9% | 45.3% | -7.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.2% | 25.7% | -7.5% |
| Both teams to score | 44.4% | 51.1% | -6.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 31.8% | -5.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Cacereno 31.7 / Lugo 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cacereno vs Lugo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.