Unionistas vs Cultural Leonesa
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-03 · 18:45 CET
LWLWD
LWDLWThe score model made a Unionistas win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Unionistas 1.17 – 1.04 Cultural Leonesa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unionistas win | 38.1% | 28.9% | +9.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 27.9% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Cultural Leonesa win | 31.9% | 43.2% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.9% | 45.3% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.2% | 25.6% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.0% | 49.9% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.4% | 31.3% | -11.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Unionistas 48.4 / Cultural Leonesa 24.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.