Racing Club Ferrol vs Pontevedra
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-03 · 16:30 CET
WWLWW
LDDLLThe score model made a Pontevedra win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Racing Club Ferrol 0.96 – 1.05 Pontevedra.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club Ferrol win | 31.6% | 40.7% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.8% | 29.7% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Pontevedra win | 36.6% | 29.5% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.6% | 41.7% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.4% | 22.8% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 40.6% | 47.8% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.6% | 28.8% | -7.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Racing Club Ferrol 31.1 / Pontevedra 31.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.