Ponferradina vs Merida AD
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-09-19 · 18:45 CET
WWWDL
DWLLLThe score model made a Ponferradina win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ponferradina 1.50 – 0.86 Merida AD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 51.7% | 51.5% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 27.3% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Merida AD win | 20.9% | 21.2% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 44.8% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 25.3% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.3% | 47.7% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 30.3% | -4.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ponferradina 45.1 / Merida AD 12.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.