Andorra vs Leganes
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-20 · 20:30 CET
WLLDL
LDLLWThe score model makes an Andorra win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Andorra win — 54.4% vs 49.0% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Andorra 1.78 – 1.06 Leganes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra win | 54.4% | 49.0% | +5.4% |
| Draw | 23.3% | 26.8% | -3.5% |
| Leganes win | 22.3% | 24.2% | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 53.3% | +0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | 33.3% | -1.5% |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | 56.5% | -2.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 36.4% | -1.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Andorra 44.6 / Leganes 45.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Andorra vs Leganes in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.