Valladolid vs Albacete
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-12 · 14:00 CET
LDWDW
DLLLLThe score model made a Valladolid win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 5:0 (HT 4:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valladolid 1.27 – 1.09 Albacete.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 40.3% | 47.3% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 28.0% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Albacete win | 31.5% | 24.7% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.0% | 50.3% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 30.0% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 54.0% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 34.1% | -4.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valladolid 40.2 / Albacete 55.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.