Eldense vs Cordoba
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-10 · 18:30 CET
WLLWW
WLWLWThe score model made an Eldense win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eldense 1.58 – 1.36 Cordoba.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eldense win | 42.3% | 42.8% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 26.3% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Cordoba win | 32.8% | 30.9% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 57.8% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 36.9% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 60.9% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 39.4% | -7.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eldense 26.4 / Cordoba 46.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.