Levante vs Sevilla
La Liga, Spain · 2026-10-12 · 21:00 CET
DWDLL
LDWWLThe score model makes a Levante win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Levante win — 45.7% vs 35.8% implied (+9.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Levante 1.60 – 1.25 Sevilla.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante win | 45.7% | 35.8% | +9.9% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 28.8% | -4.1% |
| Sevilla win | 29.6% | 35.4% | -5.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | 46.7% | +7.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | 26.6% | +5.3% |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 52.4% | +4.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 31.4% | +3.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Levante 28.8 / Sevilla 49.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.