Betis vs Osasuna
La Liga, Spain · 2026-10-11 · 18:30 CET
LWWWD
WLLLDThe score model makes a Betis win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.7% vs 67.4% implied (+4.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Betis 1.77 – 0.91 Osasuna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betis win | 57.6% | 59.1% | -1.4% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 23.1% | +0.2% |
| Osasuna win | 19.0% | 17.8% | +1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 53.8% | -3.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 32.6% | -4.3% |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | 52.4% | -2.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 36.6% | -1.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Betis 49.4 / Osasuna 49.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.