Real Madrid vs Villarreal
La Liga, Spain · 2026-10-10 · 21:00 CET
WLWWL
LLLWWThe score model makes a Real Madrid win the most likely outcome at 65%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 51.7% vs 46.6% implied (+5.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.44 – 1.16 Villarreal.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 65.5% | 70.3% | -4.9% |
| Draw | 18.1% | 16.8% | +1.3% |
| Villarreal win | 16.4% | 12.8% | +3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.6% | 72.6% | -3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.3% | 53.4% | -5.1% |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | 62.6% | +0.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 55.1% | 50.9% | +4.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Real Madrid 49.3 / Villarreal 49.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.