Alaves vs Atl. Madrid
La Liga, Spain · 2026-10-10 · 16:15 CET
WLLDL
LWWWWThe score model made an Atl. Madrid win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alaves 1.08 – 1.46 Atl. Madrid.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves win | 27.9% | 21.8% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 25.6% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Atl. Madrid win | 45.7% | 52.7% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | 52.0% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 30.9% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 53.9% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.9% | 35.0% | -10.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alaves 46.5 / Atl. Madrid 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.