Cheonan City vs Busan
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-11-08 · 06:00 CET
DLWWD
WLDWWThe score model makes a Busan win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.7% vs 66.3% implied (+4.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cheonan City 1.25 – 1.48 Busan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheonan City win | 31.7% | 30.7% | +1.0% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 25.5% | +0.8% |
| Busan win | 42.0% | 43.8% | -1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 54.9% | -3.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% | 33.7% | -4.4% |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 57.7% | -2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 37.2% | -2.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Cheonan City 50.5 / Busan 49.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cheonan City vs Busan in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.