Seongnam vs Hwaseong
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-09-20 · 12:00 CET
WLDLL
DWDLLThe score model made a Hwaseong win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Seongnam 1.02 – 1.08 Hwaseong.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seongnam win | 32.9% | 34.5% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.0% | 29.1% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Hwaseong win | 36.1% | 36.4% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.2% | 45.6% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.3% | 25.3% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | 51.5% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 31.5% | -7.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Seongnam 48.7 / Hwaseong 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Seongnam vs Hwaseong in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.