Gimpo FC vs Cheongju
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-07 · 13:00 CET
WDLLD
WDLLWThe score model made a Gimpo FC win the most likely outcome at 50%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimpo FC 1.31 – 0.72 Cheongju.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimpo FC win | 50.1% | 52.6% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.8% | 26.6% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Cheongju win | 20.1% | 20.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.1% | 45.6% | -12.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.8% | 25.3% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.9% | 48.1% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.2% | 31.3% | -12.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gimpo FC 48.6 / Cheongju 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.