Asan vs Ansan Greeners
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-07 · 10:30
The score model makes a Asan win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Asan 1.80 – 0.83 Ansan Greeners.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asan win | 60.0% | 60.2% | -0.3% |
| Draw | 23.5% | 22.8% | +0.7% |
| Ansan Greeners win | 16.5% | 17.0% | -0.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 53.3% | -4.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 32.5% | -5.4% |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 51.2% | -3.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 36.5% | -4.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Asan 48.8 / Ansan Greeners 48.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.