Asan vs Ansan Greeners
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-07 · 13:00 CET
LWLLL
LLLWLThe score model made an Asan win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Asan 1.80 – 0.83 Ansan Greeners.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asan win | 60.0% | 57.3% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 23.9% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Ansan Greeners win | 16.4% | 18.7% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 53.1% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 32.4% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 52.2% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 36.3% | -4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Asan 48.6 / Ansan Greeners 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.