Gimpo FC vs Gyeongnam
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-02 · 12:30 CET
WDLLD
LDDWWThe score model made a Gimpo FC win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimpo FC 1.34 – 0.89 Gyeongnam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimpo FC win | 46.7% | 45.2% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 28.9% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Gyeongnam win | 24.5% | 25.9% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.6% | 43.7% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.7% | 23.9% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 49.3% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.7% | 30.2% | -5.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gimpo FC 48.1 / Gyeongnam 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.