Seoul vs Ulsan HD
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-11-08 · 06:00 CET
WLWDD
WLLWDThe score model makes a Seoul win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Seoul win — 57.0% vs 49.3% implied (+7.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Seoul 1.97 – 1.08 Ulsan HD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seoul win | 57.0% | 49.3% | +7.7% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 24.2% | -0.3% |
| Ulsan HD win | 19.1% | 26.5% | -7.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 61.1% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.4% | 40.4% | -4.0% |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 61.8% | -3.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 42.2% | -1.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Seoul 48.2 / Ulsan HD 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Seoul vs Ulsan HD in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.