Gangwon vs Jeonbuk
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-11-08 · 08:30 CET
LDWDD
DLWDDThe score model makes a Gangwon win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gangwon win — 43.1% vs 40.0% implied (+3.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gangwon 1.42 – 1.10 Jeonbuk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon win | 43.1% | 40.0% | +3.2% |
| Draw | 29.3% | 29.7% | -0.4% |
| Jeonbuk win | 27.6% | 30.3% | -2.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 43.6% | +2.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 24.9% | -0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 50.0% | +2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 30.8% | -1.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Gangwon 48.3 / Jeonbuk 49.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gangwon vs Jeonbuk in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.