Daejeon vs Incheon
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-11-08 · 06:00 CET
DWWWD
DDWDWThe score model makes a Daejeon win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 71.4% vs 66.3% implied (+5.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Daejeon 1.47 – 1.11 Incheon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon win | 43.9% | 45.6% | -1.7% |
| Draw | 28.8% | 27.7% | +1.1% |
| Incheon win | 27.3% | 26.6% | +0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 48.5% | -0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.1% | 28.7% | -2.6% |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 53.2% | -0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 33.7% | -5.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Daejeon 49.1 / Incheon 35.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Daejeon vs Incheon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.